The speed and scope of Florida’s hard-right agenda hinge on an arcane but powerful fraction: two-thirds. 

That’s the threshold Republicans need to maintain their supermajority in the state Legislature, a dominance that has let them steamroll through some of the country’s most controversial policies—from sweeping abortion bans to curbs on LGBTQ rights and tightened voting access. 

With Gov. Ron DeSantis’ landslide 2022 win setting the stage, the GOP is now fighting to hold onto the muscle that has let it reshape Florida’s identity in the last two years. This includes defending 10 House districts where former President Donald Trump lost in both 2016 and 2020.

Recent polling forecasts another strong Republican election, narrowing Democrats’ outlook for winning control of the state Senate and House. 

Democrats may see a glimmer of an opening to fracture that supermajority. With just two seats in the Senate or five in the House needed to break the Republicans’ grip, Democrats are counting on key swing districts and shifting voter dynamics to turn the tide. 

With just days to the election, recent polling has placed Trump between 4 and 10 percentage points ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida. That’s after winning the state in 2020 by 3.3 percentage points. And polls show Republican Sen. Rick Scott with a lead of 3 to 8 percentage points, after winning the state by around 0.1 percentage points in 2018. 

If the polling in those races is reflected across the legislative districts, it puts a handful of seats won by Republicans in 2022—a wave year that saw DeSantis win re-election by an historic 19-point statewide margin, the worst performance by Democrats in 154 years—potentially in play.

What Supermajority Dominance Means

A supermajority grants Florida Republicans control beyond the simple majority required to pass legislation. With more than two-thirds of seats in both the Senate and House, the GOP wields exceptional powers, including overriding gubernatorial vetoes, fast-tracking controversial bills by waiving procedural rules, and imposing mandates on local governments. 

“The ability to waive procedural rules can essentially streamline the legislative process to pass controversial measures without lengthy debate,” explained Susan MacManus, a political analyst and professor emerita at the University of South Florida​.

Losing even a few seats could alter that dynamic significantly, forcing the GOP to contend with Democrats on more legislation and complicating the path for sweeping conservative measures. 

While Republicans would still likely maintain a majority, said Michael Binder, a political scientist at the University of North Florida, the loss of their supermajority powers "could force compromises on contentious legislation."

The supermajority allows Republicans to wield influence over Florida's government in ways that go far beyond a simple majority's capabilities. Some of the most significant powers at risk include:

  • Fast-Tracking Legislation: Waiving procedural requirements like reading bills on three separate days before a vote.
  • Imposing Unfunded Mandates: Passing laws that shift costs to local governments.
  • Constitutional Amendments: Proposing ballot initiatives to amend the Florida Constitution.
  • Public Records and Meetings Exemptions: Allowing for exemptions to the state's public records and public meetings laws.
  • Overriding the Governor's Veto: Allowing the legislature to override the governor’s veto, though lawmakers have been unwilling to buck the governor so far.

“The power to override a veto is perhaps the most significant,” MacManus said​, “as it allows the legislature to bypass the governor's opposition entirely.”

Unlike the other powers, the Legislature needs only a three-fifths vote to propose constitutional amendments. Democrats would need to flip at least 13 GOP-held seats in the state House or five Senate seats.

A more balanced legislature would also mean necessarily more time and attention put on hot-button proposals.

"Loss of supermajority control would not only alter the legislative process but also reduce the likelihood of passing controversial laws without bipartisan support," Binder added.

Republicans currently hold a supermajority in the Senate, but just two flipped seats would break it. 

The problem for Democrats is timing; only odd-numbered seats are up for election this cycle, limiting the number of competitive races. 

As luck would have it, five of the six closest GOP-held seats aren't up for grabs until 2026. 

In the House, Democrats could see a handful of districts that might slip away from Republicans, if turnout patterns swing away from the GOP.

Key Races to Watch

The current districts, which were redrawn during the decennial redistricting in 2021, have been analyzed using election results from previous years, using granular statewide election results re-aggregated into the new districts.

The Florida Senate: Little Change Expected

The State Senate has a lot of stability built in, with districts that don’t show much signs of being flippable by either party. There could be a few surprises, in two districts in particular. 

For Democrats to win the two districts needed to get rid of the supermajority, they would need to outperform DeSantis' margin in 2022 by 26 points. 

Democratic Target Districts

Senate District 3

  • Incumbent: Corey Simon (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 1.2% Republican

Senate District 3 is an opportunity district for Democrats, given its history of swinging between parties. While Trump narrowly lost the district by 3 points in 2020 and DeSantis by four in 2018, the governor surged to win it by 10 points in 2022. 

Republican Corey Simon, a former NFL player, is striving to maintain his seat in a traditionally Democratic area, facing a tough challenge from Democrat Daryl Parks, a civil rights attorney. 

Senate District 31

  • Incumbent: Gayle Harrell (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 15.5% Republican

Senate District 31 covers parts of St. Lucie and Palm Beach counties and all of Martin County, and it has swung toward Republicans rapidly. Trump won the district by 11 points in 2020, and two years later, DeSantis won re-election in the district by 26 points. 

Republican Gayle Harrell has served in the Florida Legislature for almost all of the last 24 years. She faces a longshot challenge from Democrat Aaron J. Hawkins. 

GOP Target Districts

Senate District 25

  • Incumbent: Open
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 14% Democratic

Republicans are looking to flip Senate District 25, a district that was won by a Democrat by just 5 points in 2022 and is now open. 

With Democrat Kristen Arrington focused on housing and healthcare facing conservative Jose Martinez, who champions parental rights and tax reform, Senate District 25 has become a key GOP target. 

"The seat is open this year, and Republicans are eager to capitalize on the opportunity to further solidify their majority," Binder noted​. 

Flipping this narrow Democratic hold from 2022 would strengthen the Republican push for a lasting supermajority in Florida’s legislature.

“The Senate landscape this year is challenging for Democrats,” said Dr. Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, who specializes in Florida politics and voter behavior, “but breaking the supermajority would be a symbolic and strategic win, even if they can't gain overall control.”

The Florida House: More Pathways to Change

In the House, Democrats need to flip five of the 120 seats to break the GOP’s supermajority. About six districts, mostly represented by freshman lawmakers, could be within reach, with another five or six potentially attainable as a stretch goal. Meanwhile, Republicans have targets of their own, though many fewer.

Democratic Target Districts

House District 106

  • Incumbent: Fabián Basabe (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 10.4% Democratic 

This coastal Miami-Dade district includes Miami Beach and South Beach, north to Aventura, and it has the strongest Democratic fundamentals of any Republican-held seat. Looking at elections from the past three cycles, the district has a double-digit Democratic lean. The district voted against Gov. DeSantis by a more than 20 percentage point margin in 2018 and against Trump by almost 10 points in 2020. DeSantis won the district by 4 points in 2022, shifting right during the wave Republican year, sweeping freshman Republican Fabián Basabe into the Legislature.

Basabe won with a razor-thin, half-point margin, with only 240 votes separating him and his Democratic opponent. Basabe has since faced scandal and sexual assault allegations, leaving him potentially vulnerable to Democrat Joe Saunders this year.

House District 47

  • Incumbent: Paula Stark (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 9.2% Democratic 

The eastern portion of Kissimmee along with all of Buenaventura Lakes and Saint Cloud, south of Orlando, make up House District 47, another potential Democratic pickup. Freshman Republican Paula Stark won this seat in 2022, after the district rejected Gov. DeSantis by a 22-point margin in 2018 and voted against President Trump by 13.5 percentage points in 2020. The district swung 19 points toward Republicans in 2022, and Stark won with a 1.8 point victory margin—less than a 1,000-vote difference—while DeSantis won the district by 8 percentage points. 

The district is also the 12th-most Hispanic House district, at nearly 60%. 

House District 113

  • Incumbent: Vicki Lopez (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 9.0% Democratic 

Republican freshman lawmaker Vicki Lopez won this seat by a slim 2-point margin in 2022. The district covers large portions of Miami’s Biscayne Bay coastline, including the Port of Miami, Key Biscayne and the southern half of downtown Miami, then wrapping north along the city’s waterfront.

The mix of affluent communities and the urban core contains voters who could either revert to their previous Democratic ways — Lopez is the first Republican to serve this portion of Miami in nearly two decades — or they could continue a rightward trend. Lopez, who was the subject of a recent Tributary investigation into her potential conflicts of interest, faces Democrat Jackie Gross-Kellogg.   

House District 37

  • Incumbent: Susan Plasencia (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 5.6% Democratic 

Orlando’s northwestern suburbs also elected a freshman Republican, Susan Plasencia, the sister of former Rep. Rene Plasencia. She could face a stiff challenge this year from a progressive Gen Z candidate, Nate Douglas, who has outraised the incumbent. 

The district extends from the eastern edge of Winter Park, capturing swaths of unincorporated Orange and Seminole counties. It includes all of Oviedo and the University of Central Florida, the largest university in Florida. The district has the youngest median age of any in the state.

House District 38

  • Incumbent: David Smith (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 1.7% Democratic

This district north of Orlando includes rapidly growing suburban communities on the southern edge of Seminole County, including Altamonte Springs, Casselberry, and Winter Springs. With a diverse population and a mix of young families, shifting demographics keep this district politically fluid.

In recent elections, the district has swung between parties: Trump lost it by 7.9 points in 2020 and by 2.6 points in 2016. DeSantis went from losing the district's voters by a 6.9-point margin in 2018 to winning the district by 6.8 points in 2022. 

Incumbent David Smith, a Republican and retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel from Winter Springs, is seeking his fourth term. Challenger Sarah Henry, a Democrat and nonprofit manager from Altamonte Springs, is aiming to flip the seat after a narrow loss to Smith in 2022 by 4.6 percentage points. 

House District 91

  • Incumbent: Peggy Gossett-Seidman (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 1.1% Democratic

Boca Raton's House District 91 split its support for Republicans and Democrats over the past three election cycles. The district’s voters, which includes a significant number of transplant retirees, elected freshman Republican Peggy Gossett-Seidman in 2022 by about 3.5 points, but without the red wave that helped sweep her into office two years ago, the district's voters could shift support to Democratic newcomer Jay Shooster. 

Democratic Stretch Targets

A scattering of other districts, from the suburbs of Orlando and Miami to Downtown Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, Sanford and Westlake, could be stretch targets for Democrats, where the district gives Republicans only a slight favor.

House District 45

  • Incumbent: Carolina Amesty (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 1.4% Republican

Freshman Rep. Carolina Amesty won this Central Florida district that includes Disney World, southwestern Orange County and northwestern Osceola County by a 6-point margin. Amesty was indicted two months ago on four charges related to an alleged forgery. She faces former Disney executive Leonard Spencer.

House District 36

  • Incumbent: Rachel Plakon (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 1.7% Republican

This northern Seminole County district spans suburban areas around Lake Mary, Sanford, and Geneva.

Plakon, a real estate investor and the wife of former state Rep. Scott Plakon, first won the seat in 2022. She now faces Democrat Kelley Diona Miller, a human resources consultant. The district has shown shifting political tendencies in recent elections: Trump lost it by 1.5 points in 2016 and 4.4 points in 2020. While DeSantis initially lost it by 4.5 points in 2018, his monumental win in 2022 gave him an 11.8-point margin among the district's voters in 2022.

House District 65

  • Incumbent: Karen Gonzalez Pittman (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 2.3% Republican

This south Tampa seat rejected Trump in 2016 and 2020, and it voted against DeSantis in 2018. But like the rest of the state, it shifted hard to the right in 2022, giving DeSantis an 11-point victory among the district's voters and electing Karen Gonzalez Pittman. She faces Democrat Ashley Brundage, who hopes to become the state's first transgender lawmaker.

House District 114

  • Incumbent: Demi Busatta Cabrera (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 2.4% Republican

Like many Miami-Dade districts, this Coral Gables seat saw Hillary Clinton win the district's voters by a landslide 16.5-point margin only for the seat to quickly swing to the right. Trump won the district in 2020 by 0.6 points, and DeSantis won re-election by a 13.5-point margin.

Busatta Cabrera faces Democrat Adam Benna, a former prosecutor.

House District 100

  • Incumbent: Chip LaMarca (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 2.8% Republican

Found along the coast of Broward County, this district includes a combination of suburban and coastal communities. 

Rep. Chip LaMarca served for eight years as the sole Republican on the Broward County commission until 2018 when he won election to the House. He faces Democrat Jim Brenner.

The district has shifted back and forth in statewide races. It narrowly voted for Trump in 2016 by a 0.2-point margin, then voted for Democrat Andrew Gillum in 2018 by a 1.2-point margin and for Joe Biden by a 0.9-point margin in 2020. In 2022, it gave DeSantis an 11.7-point victory.

House District 94

  • Incumbent: Rick Roth (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 3.3% Republican

Located in western Palm Beach County, House District 94 encompasses areas from Interstate 95 to the agricultural Glades region, covering Wellington, Westlake, Belle Glade, Pahokee, and South Bay.

Incumbent Rick Roth is term-limited, leaving the seat open to Rachelle Litt, a Democrat and former mayor of Palm Beach Gardens, and Meg Weinberger, a Republican and animal sanctuary owner. Weinberger led Palm Beach County’s Moms for Liberty chapter and has received Trump’s endorsement.

Over the past four election cycles, District 94 has been a political battleground. In 2016, Trump lost here by a 4.3-point margin, and DeSantis later lost it by 5.1 points in his 2018 run for governor. However, by 2020, the district was evenly split, with Biden and Trump each capturing 49.6% of the vote. The 2022 election saw a significant shift, with DeSantis winning the district by a 15.2-point margin, underscoring the state’s broader red shift that year.

House District 115

  • Incumbent: Alina Garcia (Republican)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 4.7% Republican

House District 115 spans parts of south Miami-Dade, including Cutler Bay, Palmetto Bay, Pinecrest, and unincorporated neighborhoods like The Falls, Kendall, and Westchester. The district has seen significant shifts in recent years, with Democrats carrying it in 2018, when Gillum won over DeSantis with 51.7% of the vote, but Republicans gained traction by 2020, with Trump narrowly edging Biden 50.5% to 48.7%. The 2022 election saw a more decisive shift, as DeSantis won with 58.4% of the vote.

Incumbent Alina Garcia is leaving the seat to run for Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections, leaving Republican Omar Blanco and Democrat Norma Perez Schwartz vying to replace her. Blanco, a firefighter and former union leader, has secured endorsements from local law enforcement. Perez Schwartz, an education nonprofit director with roots in civic engagement, has centered her campaign on affordable housing, infrastructure improvements, and reproductive rights.

And while there are what seem to be more than enough districts whose natural partisan leanings set them up for potential flips away from Republican control, two seats are held by Democrats with nearly evenly divided electorates where Republicans could potentially flip them, either thwarting Democrats’ attempt to fracture the GOP supermajority, or keeping things even by swapping a Democratic pickup in one of their target districts list, for a Republican pickup elsewhere in the state.

Republican Target Districts

House District 35 (GOP Target)

  • Incumbent: Tom Keen (Democrat)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 0.7% Democratic (The most Republican-leaning seat currently held by Democrats.)

Encompassing parts of Central Florida stretching from eastern Orange County to southern Osceola County, potentially near Orlando and its suburban surroundings. The district has a mix of suburban and semi-rural areas, with younger demographics that could swing with higher turnout.

The district has swung between parties in recent elections: Joe Biden won it by 5 points in 2020, while DeSantis secured a 12-point re-election there in 2022.

Keen was first elected in a special election earlier this year, narrowly defeating Republican Erika Booth. The two will face off again in a rematch.

House District 9

  • Incumbent: Allison Tant (Democrat)
  • Average lean 2018 - 2022: 4.3% Democratic

House District 9, represented by Democrat Allison Tant, covers parts of Tallahassee and stretches eastward into rural Jefferson and Madison counties. The district’s new boundaries include neighborhoods in northeast Tallahassee, where voters lean progressive, as well as rural areas that voted for Trump, creating a blend of urban and rural communities.

Tant, a former chair of the Florida Democratic Party, faces a formidable challenge from 27-year-old Republican Spencer Brass, a real estate investor backed by incoming GOP House leadership. Republicans see this race as a prime opportunity to capture a historically Democratic seat in their push to retain a supermajority.

An August poll showed Tant with a 19-point lead.

DeSantis could face the biggest consequences

For DeSantis, losing the supermajority could weaken his ability to push his agenda, potentially complicating his national aspirations. 

"The legislature's ability to enact his policies quickly has been a cornerstone of his governance,” Jewett said, “and without that advantage, his national ambitions might face more hurdles.”

If Democrats could manage to fracture the GOP’s supermajority, it would signal a shift in a state that has moved rightward in recent years. On the other hand, if Republicans maintain their grip, it will underscore Florida's reputation as a solidly red state.

With just days until the election, the polling data paints a murky picture for Democrats hoping to break the GOP's supermajority grip. Trump's consistent polling advantage represents an expansion from his previous Florida victories, with about a 6.5-point polling advantage this year, after a 3.3-point victory margin in 2020 and a razor-thin 1.2-point win in 2016. 

But it was a nearly 20-point margin for Gov. DeSantis’ 2022 wave-year victory and the Republican supermajority that came with it. The traditionally higher turnout and closer margins during presidential election years could mean a more moderate electorate, potentially cracking the GOP supermajority. 

Even if Republicans lose their supermajority legislative powers, the party remains all but certain to hold onto the Legislature. The question is whether they will hold the same supermajority that has made it all the easier to enact their policy agenda.