It’s been roughly a month since a Miami-area Republican congresswoman publicly accused President Donald Trump of betraying Hispanic voters.

Early voting began on Monday. 

Although the votes won’t be counted until November, one fact is clear:

This ain’t 2024. 

In fact, it is a starkly different political landscape than just two years ago, when Trump carried Miami-Dade County – which as recently as 2016 was still a Democratic stronghold – by 11 percentage points.   

This time, for South Florida’s GOP incumbents, the headwinds are many: a lackluster economy, sky-high gas prices, and a growing voter backlash against the Trump administration’s aggressive deportation policies. It’s enough to cast at least some uncertainty – even on South Florida’s most prominent congressional Republicans with longstanding relationships to Miami’s Republican-friendly Cuban voters. 

“Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far!” Republican U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar said, last month, in an unusually-confrontational TV ad. 

Salazar, a daughter of Cuban exiles and a former broadcast journalist with a keen sense for the dramatic, represents a Republican-leaning Miami-area district that is roughly 74 percent Hispanic. Beyond Miami, the district also includes portions of Coral Gables, South Miami, Pinecrest, and Kendall. 

It is rare for an incumbent member of Congress to publicly blast the president from their own political party – let alone do so in a dramatic TV ad, with the image of the White House itself in the background.

But Trump’s collapsing support among Hispanic voters – and polls suggesting the District 27 race could be close – may have altered the political calculus. 

Salazar’s congressional neighbor, U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez, a strident Trump supporter who represents less swingy Miami suburbs, has also welcomed a recent walkback in federal immigration policy, even if he hasn’t gone as far as Salazar in condemning the White House 

Pew survey results

On Friday, the Pew Research Center released survey results showing Trump’s approval rating among Hispanic voters has dropped to 24 percent – down from 38 percent in February of 2025. A majority of Hispanic voters say the Trump administration’s policies “harm Hispanics more than help them and that their situation as a group is worse than a year ago.”

Also: roughly 62 percent of Hispanic voters say the number of immigration deportations is excessive. 

“There’s a general feeling that too much enforcement is happening,” said Mark Hugo Lopez, Pew’s director of race and ethnicity research.

Salazar’s attempt to distance herself from the increasingly-unpopular president could potentially appease moderate and independent voters, but her TV ad also irritated Trump personally – as well as some of his hard-core MAGA supporters. After it aired, Trump fired back by reposting social media posts attacking Salazar, including one that called the congresswoman “nothing but a back stabber.”

Salazar’s Democratic opponent, Eliott Rodriguez, said he is grateful for the controversy. 

He said Salazar’s ad prompted a wave of national media attention to the District 27 race – which ultimately benefitted his campaign.

“I would like to thank her for this opportunity,” said Rodriguez, during an interview at his Miami campaign headquarters, with The Florida Trib. “People are calling me and saying ‘Are you the guy running against that crazy lady in Miami?’”

Rodriguez’s response: “Yeah, that’s me. I could use some help.”

Salazar’s campaign did not respond to repeated requests for an interview.

Castro controversy

The heightened national attention in the district prompted the U.S. House Democratic Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, to join Rodriguez on the campaign trail on Friday. The two men shared Cuban coffee, while posing for the cameras, at CAO Bakery & Cafe in Pinecrest.

Rodriguez, a former lead news anchor for CBS4 Miami, is facing another former TV journalist for this congressional seat. Salazar was a superstar at Telemundo, and has interviewed both Cuban strongman Fidel Castro and former Chilean president Augusto Pinochet.

But in this showdown between celebrity TV reporters, Salazar’s 1995 sit-down with Castro has become fodder for attack ads. 

Rodriguez’s campaign recently posted a video on social media showing Castro smiling warmly at Salazar during that interview – a stark contrast to Rodriguez’s own run-in with the late dictator, when Castro’s bodyguards pushed Rodriguez’s microphone away as he attempted to aggressively question him without permission. 

“She cozied up to the regime to get her exclusive interview with Fidel Castro, and when she got it, she praised him,” Rodriguez says in his new ad. 

Looking forward, Rodriguez told The Florida Trib that the sputtering U.S. economy remains the top issue for voters, but Republicans’ hard-line immigration stance – which has led to massive deportation sweeps, and the breakup of families – has also shaken the community. 

“People are being personally impacted by the immigration policy,” he said. “They have family members, they know people, who have been detained, who have been deported, and they are horrified by the treatment of immigrants – in a community, basically, of immigrants.”

Since her public break with Trump, Salazar has continued campaigning to keep her seat – buoyed by the support of right-wing leaders from Latin America, who continue to line up behind her. 

Last week, Colombia’s president, Abelardo de la Espriella, called Salazar “Colombia’s best friend in U.S. Congress.”   

The prior week, Salazar received a video endorsement from Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who called the congresswoman a “firm and loyal ally to the cause of Venezuelan freedom.”

A battle for the suburbs

In the suburban congressional district next door, District 28, Rep. Carlos Gimenez, a Cuban-American, has supported the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown and taken a notably different tack than Salazar. 

But last month, after a news story suggested the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency might pivot to a more-targeted focus on criminals, Gimenez enthusiastically welcomed that shift. 

“Since the beginning, we’ve said the focus should be on criminals, gang members, & convicted felons with deportation orders — over 700,000 criminals remain in our country!” Gimenez posted on social media. “This is the right decision, our border is the most secure in history. Thank you, Mr. President!”

Gimenez’s campaign did not respond to multiple interview requests from The Florida Trib.

Maureen O’Toole, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said: “South Florida families know that Maria Salazar and Carlos Giménez fight tirelessly for them in Washington. Voters know they get results, and they’ll send them back to Congress in November as a result.” 

Gimenez’s Democratic opponent, Phil Ehr, said Gimenez has voted “in lockstep” with the president, even if Gimenez’s tone on immigration issues is different. 

“Where are his votes?,” Ehr said. “Where are his votes to help the immigrant community?”

The Ehr-Gimenez race is a rematch from 2024. In that prior race, Gimenez trounced Ehr by nearly 30 percentage points. 

Since then, Ehr says much has changed. 

His first run for the seat, he said, came too soon after moving to South Florida from the Florida Panhandle. 

Following that 2024 loss, Ehr said he remained active in the community, and his presence was appreciated – on issues ranging from oversight of the Miami-Dade County budget to endangered species protections in the Florida Keys. 

That grassroots commitment, combined with his prior career as a Navy Commander, is now resonating with voters, Ehr said. 

“We’re giving them a reason to come out,” Ehr said. “And that reason is authentic representation, by yours truly.”

Ehr will appear on the ballot as Phil “Felipe” Ehr. 

To an uninformed voter, the nickname might suggest that Ehr is of Hispanic descent. After all, the district’s voters are nearly 73 percent Hispanic. 

Ehr told The Florida Trib that he is not of Hispanic heritage, but the “Felipe” nickname came from a youth soccer coach, who was Colombian. 

Since then, teachers and others have called him “Felipe,” Ehr said. 

How many people use this nickname? Ehr declined to provide a number, but said he introduces himself with both names. 

“When people say ‘Felipe,’ I turn my head,” Ehr said. “And it happens.”

A ‘safe’ district?

The District 28 race is generally viewed as less competitive than Salazar’s race in District 27.

District 28 is redder, and Gimenez has a long, successful track record in Miami politics – a decades-long resume that includes stints as Miami city manager, Miami-Dade County commissioner, and Miami-Dade County mayor. 

Political handicappers have a similar GOP-friendly read on District 26, another suburban Miami-Dade seat, which is represented by Mario Diaz-Balart, a Republican and member of a well-known Cuban-American family in South Florida. 

But in a “wave” election, could trouble arrive for Gimenez and Diaz-Balart? 

Juan-Carlos “J.C.” Planas, a former Republican state lawmaker from Miami who became a Democrat in recent years, said the economic suffering taking place remains underreported.

“People who are hurting don’t like to talk about it,” Planas said. “Stuff is getting really expensive.” 

Planas also highlighted the importance of the Florida Keys in District 28 – Gimenez’s district. Monroe County is included in the district, and it tilts Republican. 

But Planas said the Keys’ “island economy” is vulnerable to economic swings, and Trump’s feud with Canada (among other countries) has made matters worse. 

“People don’t realize how much people who work in the service industry there are hurting,” Planas said. “Monroe is probably not going to get the Canadian tourists that they normally get this winter.”

Michael Vasquez is an investigative reporter at The Florida Trib. He can be reached at michael.vasquez@floridatrib.org.